Analysts have yet to work out whether Mr Schroder is sitting on a one-nil lead or a nil-all draw

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Analysts have yet to work out whether Mr Schroder is sitting on a one-nil lead or a nil-all draw.His game plan, however, is fairly clear. Mr Schroder is youthful in comparison to his opponent: 54 against 68 He is also untainted by power, at least in Bonn. When Mr Kohl reiterates his list of achievements during 16 years in power - German re-unification and peace in Europe - it is easy to accuse the Chancellor, as Mr Schroder did during a parliamentary debate on Thursday, of "living in the past".The rest of the Schroder package is deliberately user-friendly: a promise of more "social justice" to keep traditional SPD voters, a mouthful of Blairite slogans aimed at the "new centre" he is trying to woo, plus a dash of compassion for good effect.Mr Kohl has yet to find the appropriate response. Four years ago, the SPD was the party of the poor, of empty coffers, weighty promises and shambolic organisation. Their leading candidates did not exactly set the world on fire either. Does anyone remember Rudolf Scharping, the man who took a tilt at Mr Kohl in 1994?Now, for some inexplicable reason, the SPD is loaded, set to spend about DM100m (pounds 34.5m) on its bid for power.

That is a figure from the Christian Democrats, who claim to have only half that at their disposal. Whatever the truth, the SPD campaign is far more slick than Mr Kohl's lumbering title defence. But if the body language of the beer-lovers and the polls are anything to go by, even in the deep south the SPD is set to gain votes.Many of the roles of previous elections are being reversed in the polls of 1998. Mr Schroder's Social Democrat Party will, of course, lose in Bavaria as certainly as it will romp home in the east. All he had to pit his hoarse voice against was crowds chanting his name.

That was in the east, the scene of famous victories, where the last two elections had been fought and won. Mr Kohl will not win there again in three weeks' time: that much is already certain. The slump in the Chancellor's popularity is such that even when he swept into conservative Bavaria, the Christian Democrats' stronghold, the new amplifiers travelled with him. Gerhard Schroder, the opposition leader, also did a few gigs in Bavaria, entertaining customers at sweaty beer tents and windswept marketplaces with a programme of pop music and populist sloganeering. Separately, Rwanda has carried out its own prosecutions: in April firing squads executed 22 people convicted of genocide.Many who recalled Kambanda's incitements to kill "Tutsi cockroaches", felt he too should have been executed. THE Helmut Kohl roadshow was kitted out with new amplifiers last week to cope with the unexpectedly high volume of hiss emanating from the audience. His article went to press before the UN tribunal's first conviction..